Perelandran commentary on a Thulcandran existence
From Obama’s speech last night:
I will listen to you, especially when we disagree.
Great! Then I hope you will oppose the fairness doctrine, Mr. Obama, because otherwise, you will be responsible for shutting down what will be the loudest and most differing voice with your policies: talk radio.
If you do nothing, though, then your true colors will be put on display for all to see, my friend.
I believe there is a good chance that Obama’s desire to be loved combined with a sense of pragmatism, much like president Clinton, will temper his leftist tendencies. I will hold my piece against him for now and wait to see how he governs. If it is more from the center, then I will give him credit. If not, I will oppose him.
3 practical fears (I could think of more but I have homework to do).
1. I fear for the courts. This result spells doom for the federal judicial system for a while if you ask me. Civil liberties and traditional values are going to continue to go through a difficult time in this country as a result of this election.
2. The fairness doctrine. Maybe I listen to too much talk radio and this isn’t a real threat, but I think there is a very good chance the fairness doctrine will be implemented. If so it will be a disaster for the country and for me personally because talk radio as we know it will disappear. If the Dems do go for it, then I will instantly become Nuclear Ricky and move into expletive-filled wrath mode.
3. Imputed income taxes. They would not affect me directly (yet), and again, I don’t know if this is actually something they Dems will try to do or if it just makes for compelling talk radio; however, if they go for it, it will prove ruinous to the country.
In related news, I’ll just point out that I was mostly right. The margin between Obama and McCain sits at around 6% right now, which is what I predicted. It was not a landslide or even a huge margin in electoral votes either- the most Obama might end up with is 375. This sounds like a lot, and it is if your knowledge or history only goes back 8 years. However, if you look at election history as a whole, 375 is NO BIG DEAL.
Other observations: McConnell kept his seat here in my KY home. This is incredibly important and symbolic. Also symbolic is that the Dems were only able to pick off 17 seats in the House and 5 in Senate, as opposed to the 30+ and 8 or 9 that the media was calling for. Another thing: Proposition 8 looks like it has passed in California.
The point of all this is, even though Obama did win and won decisively, this is not a rout or extremely lopsided victory for the Dems and Liberals. It could have been much, much worse.
My prediction:
Obama wins, but not in a landslide, and not even by a sizable margin.
What is a landslide? If you ask me, it’s anything more than 450 electoral votes. That was the kind of margin broken by the landslides of Reagan, Nixon, Eisenhower, FDR.
No, Obama wins by no more than- oh- 320, but probably more like 300. Not an impressive margin by any means.
For those of you who think the definition of history is the past 2 elections (8 years), let me point out something. President Bush won with 286 votes in 2004, and 271 votes in 2000. However, prior to that, every elected president since Wilson in 1914 won with more than 300 electoral votes (well- ok- carter won with 297). With the exceptions of Truman, Kennedy, Nixon’s first win, and Carter, they ALL won by more than 350 electoral votes.
I hear people are saying “HUGE MARGIN! LANDSLIDE! MANDATE!”
Um, no.
Another thing: the popular vote. I predict that Obama will not win by any more than a 6% margin. Is this by any measure a big margin? Absolutely not.
Now that being said, McCain does have a chance. Not even a long shot chance, but a decent one. Having read and listened to waaay too many people’s opinions on this race, I’ll offer some tips on how to watch the returns. These are free of charge, and therefore worth no more than that.
If you are a McCain supporter, please do not lose hope until the very end; however the time to begin weeping is if you see that Obama has won any combination of two on the following list of states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Another way of saying this is that McCain can only afford to lose one of any of those states. If he loses one of those, but wins all of this second tier list: Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Indiana, then he will be hurting.
If McCain loses one of the states on the top tier and one on the second tier, however, then move your attention to the following list: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. McCain has to win at least 3, but probably all 4 of those states (depending on which 2 states in the first and second tier he lost).
To sum up, here are McCain’s paths to victory: win Florida, Ohio, AND Pennsylvania. Failing that, win North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana AND Georgia. Failing that, he has a last ditch opportunity to win with Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, AND Nevada.
If he can’t do that, then it is over. And I’m just being honest here: it doesn’t look good.
If you find Barack Obama to be an inspirational figure, then you are not alone. A quick google of “Barack Obama inspiration” reveals that many people feel the same way. Even I find Barack Obama to be an inspiration- though I expect not in a way he would find edifying. But I digress.
I would like to ask a simple question: what, exactly, does Barack Obama inspire you to do? Think about that for a second.
There are many possible answers to that question. Perhaps he inspires you to serve your country in the military. Does he inspire you to volunteer at a homeless center, pregnancy center, or church? Maybe he inspires you to act more lovingly toward your family. He may inspire you to kick a drug habit, study harder in school, or eat a more healthy diet. Unfortunately I really don’t see how Obama particuarly inspires one to do anything like the above, and I haven’t met anyone yet over the past two Obama-focused years who told me, “you know, because of Barack Obama I’m going to do ____”.
If I may be so bold as to hazard a guess, I would say that Obama inspires you to… drum roll… well, vote for Barack Obama.
Some of you might find this observation to be an unfair one; after all, in my experience, when pressed Obama fans are likely to say “he inspires me to get involved.” However, again I inquire, what does get involved mean? Well, it means to get involved by… voting for Barack Obama. Perhaps it also means to convince others to… vote for Barack Obama.
Inspiration ought to be about more than good feelings. Unfortunately, emotion passes for substance in this world.
A person might ask me, “well smarty pants, what does John McCain inspire you to do, eh?” I must confess, I don’t find the man to be particularly inspiring. Oh sure, his POW story is an inpirational one, but I’d be lying if I were to say it inspired me to go out and join the military- I haven’t, and besides, my sister, cousin, and grandfather are more likely to inspire me in that way than McCain.
But you see, that’s the entire point. Inspiration is great, but it is not a necessary facet of a potential presidential package.
My dear Obama supporter, I encourage you not to look toward Barack Obama as your source of inspiration. He is a politician, and more than that, only a man. He will always let you down.
Key difference between the Right and the Left #408582: the Left is inspired by politicians; the Right tolerates them.
ADDENDUM: The question strikes me: is the Right inspired by Ronald Reagan? Certainly. Does this invalidate my assertion about the difference the Left and the Right? No. There is a fundamental difference here: Reagan inspires me to hold fast to the values he represents, which I already hold. I am not inspired by Reagan so much as his values.
Obama supporter, do you hold the same values as Barack Obama? Do you believe in the socialist dictum of “spread the wealth around”? Do you want a European/Canadian style, government-run, single-payer (read: socialist) healthcare system? Are you willing to give up the benefits of global free trade in favor of protectionist economic policies that will lead us, like Herbert Hoover’s policies did, into a second Great Depression? Is abortion on demand up to and after a baby’s birth a value you hold dear? Are you in favor of more judges being put on the SCOTUS who will interpret the Constitution according to how their heart leads them, and according to the trends of the other state courts around the world instead of according to the meaning intended by the founders of our country? If so, by all means- let him inspire you all the way into the voting booth. I don’t begrudge you your opinions. If not, don’t let emotion deceive you into voting for a person you don’t actually agree with because “he inspires me to get involved.”
Vapid.
Apparently the McCain campaign is spending copious amounts of money and time in PA lately in an effort to eat away at Obama’s lead there.
I don’t know if this is good strategy or not. If McCain were to get PA (21 votes), that would basically negate the dire need for wins in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Nevada (total of 18 votes). It’s been the conventional wisdom for a while now that the winner of Colorado this year is the winner. Maybe McCain- in a very McCainesque way, love it or hate it- is trying to buck the conventional wisdom.
But even if he gets PA, he simply MUST get Virginia AND Florida (that is unless you get 3 of NH, NV, CO, MN and WI, but that is not going to happen). I have to believe he will certainly get at least one of Florida and Virginia. He also might be trying to get MN and/or WI, which throws a wrench into my whole analysis. If he does not get at least one of Virginia and Florida- how do I put this nicely?- then McCain never had a real chance to begin with.
The real question, though, is: can McCain really win PA? Realclearpolitics has him down by 11 points at the moment; at the same time, an internal Obama campaign poll has Obama ahead by only 3. Who dost thou believeth?
I don’t know. However, It sure makes it easier for McCain when western PA’s own Dem Congressman (Murtha) is out there calling them racist (which he did apologize for) and then rednecks a little bit later.
I have some friends living in PA. Let me use the miniscule influence I have and ask those people: please. Get out and vote for John McCain on Nov 4th, and urge your friends and family to do the same. This state’s vote is crucial.
Follow me on this, because it could really happen.
On election night, the electoral map looks something like the following 2 scenarios (there are actually many more of them, but these are probably the most plausible):
(click to embiggen)
The electoral college count is Barack Obama with 269 votes, and John McCain also with 269 votes.
Now we’ve all had eighth grade government classes at some point; some of us will recall that in this eventuality, the decision for the President goes to the House of Representatives and the decision for Veep is made by the Senate. However it was not at all immediately clear to me, thinking about this today, what that would mean. Does the current 110th congress vote, or is it the newly elected congress which assembles January 3rd of 2009 that will make this decision?
According to the 12th Amendment, “the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President.” So it is the current House delegation that chooses the President, and not the newly elected House. Does this mean that it is a forgone conclusion that Obama will be President then, since the current House has a 31-seat majority of Democrats? Far from it. The 12th Amendment goes on to say that “in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote… and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.”
Didya catch that? There are not 435 votes cast such as the case with legislation. Instead, each state’s delegation is allocated 1- and only 1- vote. California receives 1 vote, and Wyoming receives 1 vote. So how does this shake down with the current US House? Currently, the Democrats have a 1 state majority (26 to 24), but this could be potentially meaningless:
It might be difficult for this majority to hold. After all, two of the Democrats’ twenty-six states are North Dakota and South Dakota, both of which will probably go for the Republican by a 2-1 margin in the popular election, and both of which are represented in the House by single members, Democrats Earl Pomeroy and Stephanie Herseth, respectively. Could both of them be counted upon to vote with their party? Could Mike Castle, the sole Republican from Delaware, be counted upon to vote with his party? Maybe, maybe not. The bottom line is that the Democratic majority in this instance would be relatively small and tenuous. There might very well be no decision reached…
NO DECISION REACHED?! I can hear the screams of the talking heads all over television now: “Constitutional crisis! Constitutional crisis! Constitutional crisis!”
This is no crisis, however; the 12th Amendment has a provision: “ if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President…”
The Veep becomes President, and this choice is the Senate’s. Ah yes, the Senate: that erudite body of dispassionate souls. First of all, it’s interesting to note that both McCain and Obama get to vote for their perspective running mates, and that Joe Biden gets to vote for himself. Even more interesting to note: the current Senate has 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats (actually 50 Democrats, but Independent Bernie Sanders would vote with the Democrats anyway), HOWEVER, Democrat #51 Joe Lieberman supports John McCain for President. The Senate vote tallies 50 to 50, another tie. As we all know, the Vice President’s only constitutional duty is to cast a vote in the case of a tie in the Senate.
Dick Cheney casts his vote, and on March 4th, 2009, Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska is inaugurated as the 44th President of the United States.
One last thing: even if the House is able to make a decision, there is still a very high liklihood (given a 269 to 269 tie) that we will have a Democrat President Barack Obama and a Republican Vice President Sarah Palin.
I am busy. I don’t have time to lay out a case for this. Thankfully, others have done a great job already.
Charles Krauthammer’s column puts it well:
But associations are important. They provide a significant insight into character. They are particularly relevant in relation to a potential president as new, unknown, opaque and self-contained as Obama…
…Obama’s political career was launched with Ayers giving him a fundraiser in his living room. If a Republican candidate had launched his political career at the home of an abortion-clinic bomber — even a repentant one — he would not have been able to run for dogcatcher in Podunk. And Ayers shows no remorse. His only regret is that he “didn’t do enough.”
Why are these associations important? Do I think Obama is as corrupt as Rezko? Or shares Wright’s angry racism or Ayers’ unreconstructed 1960s radicalism?
No. But that does not make these associations irrelevant. They tell us two important things about Obama.
First, his cynicism and ruthlessness. …Would you even shake hands with — let alone serve on two boards with — an unrepentant terrorist, whether he bombed U.S. military installations or abortion clinics?…
…Second, and even more disturbing than the cynicism, is the window these associations give on Obama’s core beliefs. He doesn’t share Rev. Wright’s poisonous views of race nor Ayers’ views, past and present, about the evil that is American society. But Obama clearly did not consider these views beyond the pale. For many years he swam easily and without protest in that fetid pond.
Another columnist lays it out:
There are at least six reasons to fear that Obama will govern from the far left.
First, it’s all he really knows. Obama grew up in a left-wing household, attended elite left-wing dominated universities, and spent the remainder of his formative years as a community organizer alongside the likes of Wright and Ayers.
Second, it’s how he votes. In 2007, according to the National Journal, Obama’s voting record was the most liberal of any senator.
Third, it’s what he falls back on. Obama is scripted to be “post-partisan.” But when off-script he’s liable to blurt out that those who resist the leftist agenda bitterly “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to those who aren’t like them.” And when his wife said that, as an adult, she has never been proud of America, Obama defended her statement as applied to American politics. This is “god damn America” lite.
Fourth, it’s what his base wants. There really isn’t much distance between Reverend Wright and Bill Ayers and the “General Betray-Us” crowd.
Fifth, it’s what he can pretend the times demand. When economic hardship causes people lose their faith in free markets, all kinds of radical mischief becomes possible.
Sixth, with the Democrats almost certain to have substantial majorities in both houses of Congress, who would constrain a President Obama?
These quotes are butchered to make them a quick read. Click on through if you so desire.
McCain at the debate last night:
You know, my hero is a guy named Teddy Roosevelt.
I’ll be totally candid here: this line perfectly illustrates why, this morning, I am thinking McCain is going to lose in a landslide. This line made me physically ill.
I agree with George Will on TR. A good test for a person’s conservative bonafides is “Who would you have voted for in the 1912 election?”
The correct answer is TAFT.
You can’t out liberal a liberal, Mr. McCain.
One word: lame.
The debate tonight was awful. Just awful. Boring. Uninformative.
I hate politicians. But I like Tom Brokaw even less.
YOUR QUESTIONS SUCKED, TOM!
I think she came very close to doing what she needed to do but am not certain she did it. Time will tell, but Biden was excellent. No mistakes from either one. Nothing embarrassing.
And most importantly- it wasn’t boring. Most of it.
I’m walking away feeling like it was a tie, but that Palin definitely kept hope alive for the ticket. I think the enthusiasm is revived for her now. It certainly is in me.
Ply the Silent Planet 