Pretty much, at this point, it’s borderline inevitable. I don’t want it to be true, but folks, it’s best you start getting used to the idea, because the odds are overwhelmingly good that Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States of America. Katy, bar the door.
Obama can’t beat her- as I’ve spent a little bit of time chronicling here on this blog (and could have spent copious amounts more), he’s probably the dimmest light bulb in the presidential candidate box right now He’s a goner. Which is ironic, because he seems to also represent the best chance we have of avoiding President Clinton Now Redux.
So she gets the dem-nom.
McCain is OLD. Period. Plus, conservatives hate him. They really do. I don’t hate the guy- I’ve actually grown to like him a lot more over the past few months; I don’t make the decisions though, and even if I did, campaign finance reform was probably a big enough sin to disqualify him from the presidential post.
Ron Paul can’t win. I love his tenacity and his love for libertarian ideals, but let’s face it- the guy’s a nutter. And even if he wasn’t, his following is nutty enough that the American people would shun him based solely on the people who represent him. This isn’t fair, of course- but presidential politics rarely are.
Fred Thompson, you say? Daniel Larison seems to think he’ll be the Republican nominee; not that Larison is a prognosticator of prognosticators- I happen to think it will be Romney- but if he’s right and it is Thompson, he will lose to Hillary. Despite his being from Tennessee, Thompson isn’t, um, “Christian enough” to appeal to people in the South and the Midwest like those I go to church with- I don’t see the lady who heads up Saturday Night Worship and Prayer voting Fred, for example. And it doesn’t help that he’s been snubbing James Dobson a little lately, either. His charisma, if he has the right kind, might be able to make up for this, but (from what I’ve seen) he doesn’t have the right kind. He’s a Hollywood guy- and not an Old Hollywood guy either, like Reagan was. There’s a big difference between Cary Grant and George Clooney. Thompson reminds one more of Charles Grodin than Ronald Reagan.
Huckabee. Has no money. He’s out. He’ll hang around a few more months nd disappear.
Giuliani, as my pal Pedro pointed out to me tonight, has been “blackmailed by Dobson”. Now as a fan of James Dobson I take issue with that choice of words, but I’m not sycophantic enough that his point is lost on me. Giuliani might have represented the best chance we had to stop the Hillary ’08 bullet train, but his conservative credentials don’t seem to be pure enough for the folks over at Focus on the Family. I’m sympathetic enough to the positions FotF purport, yet I question the decision to come out against the guy so early. As has been said over and over again in various places, we are not voting for a Pastor in Chief.
Which brings me to Mitt. To be honest, I’ve been a fan of this guy from the beginning. Call me crazy and naive, but I believe in his sincerity. I think he has what it takes to lead the country in the times that are coming, and I believe he possesses the moral authority we ought to expect of persons we put in that position. And oddly enough, as a person intimately acquainted with the thinking of Right Wing nut jobs like myself, I also believe that the leaders of the most conservative of national groups will extend the benefit of the doubt to him which they have denied to Giuliani and over look his Mormonism. Which speaks well of such people by the way, because it means that what is important to us is values and not politics. And so Dobson et al will back Romney.
And Clinton will beat him. It will probably be close, and very exciting, and I’ll do everything I can with what limited power I possess to make sure it doesn’t happen, but it will. Because as much as I like Mitt, one irrefutable fact has been pointed out in too many places for me to ignore it: he’s too slick. He is the typical Mormon patriarch. I’m not bashing Mormons here- as a Christian I think they are deceived of course, but I admire their family values and the level of sincere happiness they have because of that. Watch the episode of South Park where the Mormon family moves into town if you want to see how most Americans perceive Mormons. Most Americans don’t like anything that seems bogus, and unfortunately Mormons come off as bogus. They want someone with more grit. Romney doesn’t have that and will have a hard time manufacturing it.
So barring miracles and signs and wonders, we’re in for 4 years of Clinton dominated politics, the first 2 years of which will be coupled with a Democratic Congress. Stevens will resign from the court over that time, and perhaps Ginsburg as well, and we will have 2 more young liberal judges installed on the Supreme Court- ensuring a continued 5-4 liberal majority. We’ll probably see some sort of national health care forced on us (poor Canadians- where will they go for MRI’s?). The ban on stem cell research will be lifted. The cause of homosexual marriage will probably advance somewhat,although how far is difficult to know.
On the bright side, I think Americans will quickly become sick of her leadership, and fire her in 2012. She’s smart enough to understand that we can’t pull out of Iraq and can’t just ignore Iran. She won’t fall asleep at the wheel of domestic security either. The border fence will probably continue to be built, by sheer political will of the American people screaming for it.
All that to say- it’s not the end of the world. But is sure does stink.
Ply the Silent Planet 